Marjorie Salzwedel writes about...

The Wager

Don,

Thank you for the thoughtful and generous introduction you gave me. I had no idea the welcomes you gave to new authors were on there until I decided to explore around. It is just like I am reading a real magazine — and a lot more — almost like going to a very popular book store that has reading and writing clubs and seminars.

Now that is one of the best compliments we’ve ever had! Thank you, Marjorie.

Gosh, it’s like auditing college courses. Reading the other introductions prompted me to read their stories too. I’m probably like one of those overwhelmed students who is sitting at the back of the class slow to get a start on figuring things out.

On the contrary, Marjorie, you are very quick on the uptake and can go to the head of the class! I’m pleased to know that the welcome messages have served their purpose — at least for you and hopefully for others, too.

Actually, they are more like formal introductions, but I prefer “welcome” as being friendlier.

Speaking of figuring things out, I always thought that Pascal was only a mathematician. Since you posed the question , “Does the story present Pascal’s Wager fairly or is the deck logically stacked in favor of the conductor? My answer is that the story doesn’t present a wager at all — except for Miranda — maybe she thought it was a wager and she gambled wrong.

I read about Pascal’s Wager in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy online. You probably read this interpretation. First published in l998 and revised in 2004, the information reported there included disagreements about whether wagering for God involves believing in God or trying to believe in God.

Considering his conclusion that it is best to wager for the existence of God than to wager against the existence of God, I think that a lot of people go to church wagering that there they will find God. These folks trying to believe keep seeking, and for them it probably isn’t one toss of the coin. (They should be looking into their own hearts for that answer — and still enjoy the people in church and focus on what Jesus has said in the Bible and what others have been witness to.)

Heads or tails? Which will it be? When I took statistics I learned that there is no advantage in wagering heads or tails, because probability won’t give a definite answer. (I do not gamble in artificial circumstances because I find making decisions in real life can seem enough like gambling. My mother always said don’t worry so much about your mistakes. Other people will be glad to correct them for you. She was a high school math teacher.

That’s quite right, Marjorie, a simple heads or tails is an even bet. But Pascal’s Wager is more than that, because the stakes are so high.

First, Pascal is not preaching to the choir, namely to people who are mystics — as he, himself, was in some form — or to people who normally interpret life in terms of a deity. Rather, he was talking to rationalists in their own way of thinking.

He says we have no choice but to wager whether or not God exists; our own existence forces us to. He uses a nautical image: vous êtes embarqué: you’re under way. We must therefore set a course, even if we choose only to drift aimlessly!

Second, he says we have everything to gain and nothing to lose. If we wager that God exists and act accordingly, then we still come out ahead even if we’re wrong.

Cyrano de Bergerac was precisely one of the people to whom Pascal was speaking. And one of the Moon-Beings with whom Cyrano converses on his visit to The Other World makes some acerbic and, at times, grotesquely funny rejoinders to Pascal in episode 38: “You Are Whom You Eat.”

Pascal’s Wager re-emerges in “The Caboose,” where the Conductor warns of an imminent train wreck. Miranda and others of the circus prefer the familiar comfort of the train and its status quo and fail to heed the Conductor’s warning. They may be right: the Conductor’s information may not be accurate, but they have no reason to think so or to suspect he doesn’t mean well.

All told, the scenario is difficult to depict. Normally we see the Wager in action, where someone ultimately risks everything for a future he will never see. It’s been done effectively in films such as One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and The Poseidon Adventure.

I hope you enjoy your explorations of Bewildering Stories, Marjorie, and keep up the good work!

Don